US election pollsters draw blank in search for ‘shy’ Trump voters
This article says that the pollsters are having trouble trying to build an accurate picture of who will actually show up and vote. They are trying to say that the polls were accurate for the primaries so they must be accurate for the general election.
Their position is that there probably isn’t a group of “Shy Trump” voters because they don’t show up in their polls. They didn’t show up in their primary polls so they don’t exist.
If that were true, how do you explain the large crowds at every Trump event and the small crowds at all of the Hillary events? The enthusiasm gap is real and it is a big advantage for Trump. Trump stands for something and Hillary doesn’t.
The difference between the polling for the primaries is that they only polled republicans and Trump only impacted registered republicans. Now Trump is appealing to republicans, independents and democrats. To accurately poll the election you would have to know what percentage of democrats would favor Trump and what percentage of republicans favor Trump. The independents will fall into place like in any election.
Another factor that will impact the polls is how many voters of any party will just sit out the election? Hillary is despicable and many people who voted for Obama won’t vote for her. The same is true for Trump, there are some voters who voted for Romney who will not vote because they can’t see voting for Hillary or Trump, but this will not hurt Trump as much as it will hurt Hillary. The reason here is the enthusiasm gap. By a large margin Trump pulls voters to his events, if they go to an event they will go out and vote.
Millennials and Sanders supporters are another factor. Granted in many cases they are the same people, but 51% won’t vote for Hillary. Some will vote for Johnson and some for Stein and even some for Trump, but every one of those votes’ counts as a vote for Trump.
Tonight’s VP debate should be interesting. There should be less name calling and more of a focus on the economy, terrorism, jobs and Obama Care. There is far less substance from the Hillary side than the Trump side. Pence can speak about positive things they will do in office and that will work in Trump’s favor.
Don’t believe the Polls even when the polls say they are sure they are accurate.
Trump is going to win big