Unlocking the Election
The keys that predict victory could pose bad news for Clinton.
By ROBERT W. MERRY • September 15, 2016
The 13 Keys to the Presidency is a concept from a Lichtman and DeCell Book published in 1990 called “The 13 Keys to the Presidency”
This spells out what it takes for a candidate to win the presidency. It doesn’t look good for Hillary; I have quoted the most relevant piece of this article, but it’s worth reading the entire article, especially since it reinforces my position that Trump will win big!!!!
“Based on my scoring, the incumbent Obama administration carries the burden of eight unfavorable keys, with another two that could turn against it before Election Day. If there is any merit in the Lichtman-DeCell framework, then the Democratic Party stands today as ineligible for rehire by the American electorate. There will be no third consecutive Democratic term under Hillary Clinton.
Of course the keys could be wrong in this particular election year, or I could be wrong in my scoring of some that call for subjective assessments (most likely, keys 7, 9, and 10—policy change, scandal, and foreign/military failure). The fact that the keys track with every presidential outcome since 1860 doesn’t guarantee that they will track with this election—particularly given that the GOP nominee is unlike any previous nominee and carries plenty of political baggage of his own.
But, even when we pull back from applying the keys as a pure predictive matrix to be taken literally, they represent a prism on presidential politics through history that shows clearly that Democrats carry a significant burden this year. It is the burden of referendum politics mixed with a generally unimpressive incumbent record and other unfavorable political circumstances. The burden can be seen also in the RealClearPolitics poll average on the direction of the country—the so-called right-track/wrong-track question. Fully 63 percent of respondents now say the country is on the wrong track, while only 31 percent believe it is heading in the right direction. These are remarkable numbers, and they correspond precisely with the Lichtman-DeCell keys.”